What’s coming for Merlin

Forward calendar

• ~15 Oct 2026 (est.)
  Merlin said · estimated Filing formula

  Warrant strike and preferred conversion reset window

  The Q2 10-Q describes a reset on the 21st trading day after the date that is six months after closing. Closing was 16 Mar 2026, so the six-month anniversary is 16 Sep 2026; the measurement window falls around mid-October 2026 (about 15 Oct 2026 if counted as the 21st trading day after 16 Sep). If the 20-day VWAP is below the then-current price, the strike / conversion resets to the greater of that VWAP and a $5.00 floor. At recent prices near $1.71, the reset may hit that floor. This date is estimated from the filing’s formula; Merlin has not published a calendar notice of the exact reset day.

  Q2 10-Q warrant note

• Nov 2026
  Industry / military context

  SOCOM RDT&E planned award months

  FY2027 SOCOM book prints November 2026 award plans: AEA Aviation Mission Autonomy ($3.100M, performer “Various”), ITMS MC-130J software ($3.500M, Lockheed), Aviation Engineering Analysis ($5.898M, “Various”). None of those lines name Merlin. An award month in a justification is a plan.

  RDTE_SOCOM_PB_2027.pdf

• 11 December 2026
  Industry / military context

  FY2027 continuing resolution ends

  The FY2027 continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103, H.R. 6500, signed 2 September 2026) funds federal agencies, including defense, at FY2026 levels until full-year FY2027 appropriations pass or this date, whichever comes first. If neither a new bill nor another stopgap passes, funding lapses 12 December. Under the CR, DoD cannot start projects that lacked FY2026 funding (Sec. 104), so a brand-new funded Merlin program before full-year appropriations is unlikely. Work already funded can continue.

  H.R. 6500 · P.L. 119-103

• FY2027
  Industry / military context

  ITMS / CR-3.1 and A2E lines

  ITMS workstreams and CR-3.1 fielding language (“late FY27”) sit in the same SOCOM book; planned ITMS award months run Jan–May 2027. A2E autonomy award line planned Jan 2027. Acquisition text names Sierra Nevada / Lockheed / “Various.” None name Merlin.

  same SOCOM PDF

• 1 Jan 2027
  Industry / military context Draft statute · House-passed

  Mobility capabilities strategic plan (H.R. 8800 §1088)

  House-passed FY2027 NDAA would require an Air Force plan through FY2047 covering automation and autonomous airlift. The section does not name Merlin. H.R. 8800 remains a House-passed bill (House passed 22 Jul 2026; received in Senate 14 Sep 2026).

  H.R. 8800 · all actions

• 15 Jan 2027
  Industry / military context

  Attritable jet briefing (committee report)

  House Report 119-698 directs an Air Force briefing on attritable jets for logistics. The report does not name Merlin.

  H. Rept. 119-698

• 1 Mar 2027
  Industry / military context Committee briefing

  Autonomous Intratheater Airlift briefing

  Same committee report: Air Force + USTRANSCOM brief HASC on remotely piloted or autonomous aircraft for distributed airlift, including, if technologies “hold promise,” a proposed timeline for an acquisition strategy. The report does not name Merlin and does not order an aircraft.

  H. Rept. 119-698

• Early 2027
  Merlin said

  Hanscom / Bedford premises expected to commence

  10-Q: a lease with estimated total future payments of $34.247M through Sep 2035 “is expected to commence in 2027.” Company materials target flight-test ops around early 2027 at Hanscom Field. Facility timing only.

  10-Q (q/e 30 Jun 2026)

• 2027 (contested)
  Merlin said Year dropped later

  New Zealand commercial service — clock conflict

  10 Jun 2026 post aimed at commercial autonomous revenue service in New Zealand in 2027. 9 Sep 2026 strategy note shuts the small-aircraft program and intends Part 107 operations at Kerikeri, with no year. Later plan controls; neither is an authority approval.

  Going First 10 Jun 2026 · 9 Sep 2026

• Jul 2027
  Merlin said

  Northrop Grumman memorandum ends unless extended

  Prospectus: NGSC memo for Beacon testbed support has a 24-month term ending July 2027 unless extended.

  prospectus 13 May 2026

• 2028
  Merlin said

  GE Aerospace teaming ends unless extended

  Prospectus: 36-month teaming ends in 2028 unless extended. Year only; the filing does not invent a day from the press-release date.

  prospectus

• 31 Jan 2029
  Merlin said

  Boston office lease expires

  10-Q: commencement 23 Mar 2026, expiration 31 Jan 2029 (with early-termination mechanics).

  10-Q

• 6 Apr 2029
  Government record

  C-130J IDIQ ordering period ends

  USAspending end date on H9240824D0001 unless modified. After that date, no new orders on this vehicle without amendment.

  USAspending IDIQ